People power: voters making a world of difference across the globe in 2015
The significance of ballots in 2015 will be felt around the world – here are 15 elections to watch out for
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In 2014 a record 1.5 billion people voted in the more than 100 elections held around the world. This year UK voters aren’t the only ones electing a new government; one third of EU member states will go to the polls, and with important elections due in Asia, Africa and the Americas, the significance of this year’s ballots will be felt around the world.
Here are the 15 elections – more or less in chronological order – to watch out for in 2015:
Sri Lanka
Mahinda Rajapaksa faces the toughest challenge of his long political career as Sri Lanka prepares for a crucial presidential election today. The key question is whether the common opposition candidate, Maithripala Sirisena, can cut significantly into Rajapaksa’s strong rural base among the majority Sinhala community. He already seems to have lost the Tamil and Muslim vote, and has been weakened by the defections of several members of parliament and aides, including Sirisena himself. Sirisena is backed by former president Chandrika Kumaratunga and several opposition parties. Maseeh Rahman
Greece
Following the Hellenic parliament’s failure to select a new president at the end of last year, early elections have been called for 25 January. Having topped last year’s European parliament elections, the leftwing and anti-austerity party Syriza is ahead in the polls. Syriza wants to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout deal. Many analysts believe the election, which outgoing prime minister Antonis Samaras of the centre-right party New Democracy has described as a referendum on Europe, could drag the eurozone back into a crisis. While Syriza is likely to emerge as the largest party, it is unclear if its leader, Alexis Tsipras, will have the numbers needed to form a government. Alberto Nardelli
Nigeria
In February, Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, heads to what will be the closest-fought elections since military rule ended in 1999. His rival Muhammadu Buhari is seen as having the best shot to dislodge the Jonathan-led People’s Democratic party, which has been in power for the past 15 years. But a likely presidential runoff could trigger sectarian bloodshed in Africa’s most populous country, where Islamists Boko Haram are entrenched in the north-east, while militants control oilfields located in the Christian-majority south. Monica Mark
Israel
Israel holds general elections on 17 March after prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s rightwing coalition – elected in 2013 – became increasingly unviable and he called snap elections late last year. Israel’s political system – with many small parties often serving particular interests – has tended to frequently create short-lived governments. In a so far close-run campaign that has already been unusually bitter, amid allegations of corruption involving former Netanyahu’s ally and foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman’s party – Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud is running neck and neck with the centre/centre-left union of Isaac Herzog’s Labour party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua. Despite various realignments and a general public weariness with Netanyahu (above), a rightwing coalition led by him and including Naftali Bennett’s far-right Jewish Home and the ultra-orthodox parties still seems more likely to emerge victorious. Peter Beaumont
Canada
A showdown looms between Conservative pro-big oil prime minister Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, the new leader of the Liberals, who is the son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau. While opposition left-leaning NDP leader Thomas Mulcair (right) has been praised for doggedly holding Harper to account on issues such as the Keystone XL pipeline and election fraud allegations, he has been unable to build on gains made in the 2011 elections. Harper will be touting his record on foreign affairs – he has intervened militarily in the Afghanistan and Isis conflicts – and the economy. Canada is on track to reducing the national deficit – though the free fall in oil prices is bound to eventually have a negative impact. Harper will use negative advertising to undermine Trudeau’s attempt to portray himself as a leader-in-waiting. Voter turnout will play an important role – the last election saw the second lowest turnout in a century. Sian Griffiths
Turkey
The Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, hopes to use parliamentary elections this year to push through radical constitutional changes and entrench himself in power, possibly until the centenary of the republic in 2023. Currently president, after three terms as prime minister, and still the leading figure of the ruling Justice and Development – or AK – party, Erdoğan will be hoping for a 330 majority in the 550-seat parliament in the general election in June. The threshold would enable him to push through the constitutional changes needed to turn Turkey into a presidential system. The election will shape the Turkish political landscape well beyond the next four years. Few pundits call into question another AKP victory; all attention will be on its scale. The stakes are high as if the AKP does manage to secure required majority, and to change the constitution with a popular referendum, Erdogan would further secure his role as the country’s undisputed strongman.Constanze Letsch
Sudan
President Omar al-Bashir (right), wanted by the international criminal court, is widely expected to extend his 25-year rule in elections due to start on 13 April. His National Congress party remains all-pervasive, while the opposition are calling for a delay to allow political reforms. Ghazi Salahuddin Atabani, a former adviser to Bashir, has set up a new party, Reform Now, but could boycott the poll. Fadlallah Burma Nasir, vice-president of the Umma party, which refused to contest the last vote in 2010, said: “We are not going to elections if things continue as they are.” Another empty Bashir victory could fuel the potential for revolt amid economic doldrums and high youth employment. David Smith
Tanzania
A new president is guaranteed in east Africa’s second biggest economy as Jakaya Kikwete steps down after his second five-year term. Prime minister Mizengo Pinda is the frontrunner but could be derailed after being implicated in an energy scandal that resulted in the plunder of more than $120m (£76.5m) from the country’s central bank. Four main opposition parties have agreed to work together in the October election but are unlikely to end half a century of dominance by the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi. The winner will inherit a gas boom but Robert Besseling, principal analyst at IHS Country Risk, predicts: “Allegations of corruption, rising prices for staples and fuel, and persistent power shortages are likely to increase the opposition’s support - and have triggered riots in major cities in the past.” DS
Denmark
Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt, right, will be calling an election before mid-September. The prime minister, who came to power in 2011 at the helm of a centre-left coalition of Social Democrats, Social Liberals and the Socialist People’s party, is currently trailing in the polls by about eight points. But a critical factor will be how much support the rightwing Danish People’s party garners on election day and the influence it will have on any future government’s policies, especially when it comes to on immigration. The party, which at last year’s EU elections became the largest party for the first time in a nationwide Danish election, is currently locked in a three-horse race atop Danish polls with the Social Democrats and the centre-right Liberal party. Could Denmark follow in the footsteps of Sweden, where the strength of the far-right Sweden Democrats led to an unlikely deal between the Socialists and the centre-right coalition in order to avert repeat elections? AN
Poland
The EU’s sixth largest country will be heading to the polls before the end of October. The country’s two main parties, the centre-right Civic Platform (which is seeking re-election under prime minister Ewa Kopacz) and the conservative Law and Justice (PiS), are currently locked in a dead heat, but like elsewhere in Europe, the arithmetic of possible coalitions is unclear. In local elections held at the end of last year, viewed as a dress rehearsal ahead of this year’s parliamentary vote, PiS came just ahead of Civic Platform (26.85% v 26.36%), but the governing party won eight more seats and retained control of 15 out of 16 assemblies. AN
Argentina
Change is in store for Argentina, where elections will be held in October this year. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who took office in 2007, is ineligible to stand in elections this October. She is thought to be grooming her son to become a future president, but he is not expected to stand this time around. Contenders to replace her in the top job include Peronists Daniel Scioli and Sergio Massa, as well as Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires and leader of the centre-right party Propuesta Republicana. Much is at stake, with Argentina mired in a deep economic crisis. The next president will inherit an economy that defaulted on its debts for a second time in 13 years in 2014, driving the peso sharply lower. Inflation is sky-high around 40%, and the economy is shrinking. Angela Monaghan
Belarus
Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, is likely to be elected for another five-year term in presidential elections due before November. With an iron grip on the security services and media, there is little chance of “Europe’s last dictator” being ousted at the ballot box. The country’s marginalised and demoralised opposition forces will have to decide whether to boycott the vote or attempt to unite around a single opposition candidate. After Lukashenko’s last win in 2010, seven opposition candidates were arrested and street protests were quickly and violently crushed. Lukashenko was given 80% of the vote; European observers described the ballot as a farce. Shaun Walker
Uzbekistan
Perhaps the most ruthless and unpleasant of all the central Asian dictatorships, Uzbekistan will hold a presidential vote on 29 March. Islam Karimov (left), the country’s leader since independence from the Soviet Union, is now 76 and has looked tired and ill in his few public appearances. He has not yet said he will definitely run again, though everyone expects him to. With absolutely no dissent tolerated, he will win easily. However, if Karimov’s illness is serious, the election period could be a dangerous and rocky time. There are signs of a vicious power struggle behind the scenes, with the president’s daughter Gulnara under house arrest for months on end and a behind-the-scenes clan battle in full swing. SW
Saudi Arabia
Elections are not looming large in Saudi Arabia in 2015. The conservative kingdom is an absolute monarchy with no political parties to make demands about how to distribute the income from the world’s second largest oil reserves. But this year will again see a vote for some local councils, though their powers are very limited. The big news is that Saudi women, who are still banned from driving, will be able to both vote and run for office for the first time following a promise by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz in 2011. Ian Black
Spain
The country’s two main parties, the opposition Socialists (PSOE) and the governing People’s Party (PP), won nearly 75% of the vote at the last general election in 2011.This was also pretty much the lower-end of the combined PSOE-PP support in all previous elections held since the 1990s after the People’s Alliance was re-founded as the People’s Party. In several of these elections the combined score of the two parties was above 80%. This year will be very different. The parties combined are now polling below 55%. The main threat to Madrid’s traditional two-party balance comes from Podemos, a leftwing movement founded at the beginning of 2014, which won 8% of the vote in last May’s EU elections, and is now polling in line with Spain’s two historic political forces. In a country governed by one or the other of the main parties, the biggest question mark over the Spanish election will be around the type of government that will emerge from the polls if neither PP or PSOE capture an outright majority. As a backdrop to all this, calls for a Catalan independence vote are ringing louder. All eyes are currently focused on Greece, but the real deal in EU elections this year may end up being Spain. AN
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/08/elections-2015-polls-across-the-globe-people-power
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