PMB and The 2019 Presidential Elections: Coronation or Battle Royal?

With hailing such as ‘Sai Baba, Sai Baba’ and ‘Feburari’ from the teeming masses, the myth was created, that of a transformer, a paradigm shifter, incorruptible champion and saintly and spartan figure.  All these superlatives created a powerful and compelling narrative, cloaking and veiling away his age, health difficulties, limited communication skills and his less than obvious emotional intelligence.

The enthusiasm ensured adequate compensation was delivered by means of electoral votes for any seeming inadequacies President Buhari may have exhibited.  But the true nature of governance with its power play and intrigues ultimately always exposes strengths and reveals the inherent weaknesses of its purveyor. In President Buhari’s case, three years has allowed his myth to be tried tested and some might say exposed.

However, pre the exposure PMB swept the electoral math of the last Nigerian Presidential elections based on some of the following factors I have enumerated below:

The antecedents of his first stint in governance with General Idiagbon, the incorruptible toga adorned by that military government which suffered early termination by General Babangida therefore creating the myth, which endured until his assumption of office as an elected President.

There was PMB’s longevity in opposition, he had to win some prize for his endurance in the political space, he ran in 2003, 2007 and 2011. He simply never gave up and as the years wore on he became a very attractive prospect outside his core constituency and Asiwaju Tinubu ensured this happened with the creation of the APC.

Another factor was the near collapse of governance precipitated by President Goodluck Jonathan’s lack of control over the hyena type characters ravaging the Nigerian treasury under his watch.

Fourthly, the myth he created as the General Officer Commanding (GOC), Third Armoured Division of Jos when in 1983, when Chadian forces invaded Nigeria in the Borno State, and he used the forces under his command to chase them out of the country, crossing into Chadian territory in spite of an order given by President Shagari to withdraw. This created the image of a no-nonsense military man who would resolve our security challenges.

All these combined, became embroidered into the consciousness of the Nigerian electorate and the conviction emerged that President Buhari Mark 2 was the change we had been waiting for.  However, in three years his government has been exposed as limited in his economic management, decision making, lethargic in fighting corruption, an enduring failure in terms of security and welfare of the people and noted for its insensitivity in handling the myriad of crises the nation has faced.  The constant bright sparkle on its firmament appears to be Professor Osinbajo but ever so often has his wings clipped, kept firmly as a spare tyre except when the President is away on holiday. 

The paradigm shift hoped for has not occurred.  It is notable that the government has made progress in some areas such as infrastructural development and stemming the looting of the treasure to some degree but its too little too late many will say.

This article will conclude by bursting the bubble of many die hard ‘Buharists’, to which I used to belong, who are convinced that 2019 is a replay of 2015.

In the North Central States of Benue, Plateau, Kwara and Kogi where President Buhari once held sway are now in play for a number of factors. Incessant killings, defections and lack of any tangible dividends.   In the North West states of Kaduna, Kano and Jigawa these states are now uncertain because of Senator Kwankwaso’s influence and defection, also Sule Lamido’s role in PDP.  Southern Kaduna will certainly not be backing the President this time around because of the violence, which the government was unable to control.  The North East states of Adamawa and Taraba have suffered from bloodletting orgy in clashes with herdsmen and the President is in trouble in those areas. In South South, Akwa Ibom appears to be moving to the President’s side but he is unlikely to hold on to Imo. In the South West, Ekiti, where his party’s governorship candidate narrowly won the elections, he is unlikely to win and he will be worse of in Osun. 

The President with all the weight of incumbency may still win it particularly in the absence of a formidable opposition figure on the horizon but the 2019 election will not be fought and won on the old and worn out myths.

Olu Ojedokun, PhD, is Acting Dean of Law, Lead City University, Ibadan.