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Tuesday, 22 July 2014

'THE QUESTION THAT IS NIGERIA' Part 2


The reality, however, is that our nation is at war with a confounding enemy whose name is corruption, our economy is in turmoil from the excesses of the recurrent expenditure and the abuses prevalent in our governance.   The healthcare system is broken and only accessible to those who can travel abroad.  On healthcare I am struck by how almost all our elected and ‘selected’ leaders fly abroad every year for treatment.  Government schools fail to provide opportunities to many of our children.  Across the land, families are paying record prices to fill up their shopping baskets and many Nigerians worry whether they will be able to raise their offspring in safety and security.

But these challenges were not bound to happen, they are the consequence of flawed policies and failing leadership.  As the world has transformed, the thinking of our leaders has remained ossified in time with the absence of new thinking.   The first few years of this new century should have been our moment, the time when our leaders turned adversity into opportunity, launching us to the next phrase of our development.  This should have been the time when bold and visionary thinking challenged conventional wisdom and took us down a pathway of development and innovation.

Instead, our history is cluttered with white elephants and corruption on a monumental scale.  I imagine what Nigeria could have achieved if we were united and worked together.  The last half-century of our independence has been a failure of our leadership rather than that of Nigerian people.   I believe that we can change course and that we must, and I project into the future an optimism that seems foolhardy but comes from the hope that after darkness emerges light – ‘Post tenebras spero lucem’.  This is certainly not the first time our nation has faced grave crises of confidence but each time, our people have found the strength to call out together and address our challenges.  This moment cannot be different, and this time demands more urgency.  Working together we can restore some sanity to our body politic, we can perfect our federation and work towards a more worthwhile union by asking unthinkable questions of ourselves.  But to bring about profound change we must be prepared to countenance some of the ideas I am expounding in the chapters to come.

To develop my narrative further I proceed into some background of the Nigerian chaotic economic planning and a series of questions using anecdotes to prise them open.  I am aware that the implementation of medium-term “development plan” has been the major framework, which Nigeria has relied upon to restructure the economy since independence. Four national development plans were launched between 1962 and 1985.  The First National Development Plan, 1962 - 1968 sought to put the economy on a fast growth path, by giving priority to agricultural and industrial development, as well as the training of high level and intermediate manpower.  The Second National Development Plan, 1970-1974, was launched after the civil war, primarily to undertake reconstruction and rehabilitation of the infrastructure damaged during the war.

The Third National Development Plan, 1975-1980, was designed under a more favourable financial condition of huge oil revenues, which accrued to the nation from the mid-1970s. It emphasised diversification, balanced development and indigenisation of the economy.  However, a significant portion of the plan was not executed because of unanticipated financial and executive capacity constraints. Thus, many key projects were carried over into the Fourth National Development Plan, 1981-1985.  The execution of the fourth plan was also adversely affected by the unexpected collapse of the international oil prices soon after its inception. Thus, the volatility of the oil sector largely determined economic policy direction as well as the financial capacity to execute public investment programmes.

The adoption of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), initially for two years (July 1986-June 1988), was the major response to the dwindling oil resources, macroeconomic policy distortions and the increasing need to diversify the productive base of the economy.  The economy witnessed a number of policy reversals between 1988 and 1989 in an attempt to cushion the adverse effects of the belt-tightening measures implemented in 1986 and 1987.   Consequently, some of the gains of economic adjustment in those two years were gradually eroded.  From the start of the 1990s, the government shifted the instrument of economic transformation from the five-year plans to the three-year rolling plans, as they were more flexible and amenable to periodic reviews.  However, there was no appreciable improvement in the performance of the economy since the commencement of the rolling plans thus necessitating further economic reengineering for sustained growth.

In the early 2000s, a comprehensive economic reform programme was initiated to fast- track economic growth. Central to the reforms was the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), 2003 – 2005, which provide a macroeconomic framework to strengthen fiscal management and improve the planning and budgeting of public expenditure to curtail abuse and mis- allocation of resources[1].  What became apparent was during the Babangida and Abacha regimes all pretentions of following a development plan were abandoned.

The powerful and narrow sectional interests have been the bane of Nigeria. I understand that when the initial plans for Nigeria’s principal container port, the Tin Can Island Port which handles about 5.75 million tons of cargo each year was laid, it included rail lines, however, by the time the port was completed the rail lines had been expunged!  What modern nation builds a seaport without and rail links?  The other port at Port Harcourt, a transshipment port located 66 kilometres from the Gulf of Guinea along the Bonny River in the Niger Delta, handles about 815,000 tons of cargo each year and has a railway connection but it is not the commercial nerve centre. 

When the old Western Region built 24-storey Cocoa House at one time tropical Africa’s tallest building, all the materials and cement used to build, it came via rail links because the road network could never have coped.  Yet, when we built the Federal Capital Territory Abuja with a land area of 713 kilometres square we relied entirely on road links from Lagos to Abuja to transport all the materials needed, the limited road network was never going to be able to cope with the multiplier effects of so much traffic.   Today we wonder why we do not have any good roads.  The limited rail infrastructure we have, we have allowed it to be degraded through years of neglect of both the rolling stock and allowed the right-of-way to seriously reduced the capacity and utility of the system.

Nigeria with the largest road network in West Africa and the second largest south of the Sahara, roughly 108,000 km of surfaced roads in 1990 has had a history of poor maintenance.  In 2004, Nigeria’s Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) began to patch the 32,000-kilometre federal roads network, and in 2005, FERMA initiated a more substantial rehabilitation.  However, this has not kept pace with over use by the powerful interests who we allowed to lay siege to the Nigerian economy. What of electricity? Have you wondered why most of the funds invested in the sector make no difference?  It is the powerful interests that benefit from lucrative generator sales that conspire to make nothing work.  The stark analysis of the sector reveals Nigeria had 5,900 MW of installed generating capacity, however, the country was only able to generate 1,600 MW because most facilities have been poorly maintained.  The country has proven gas reserves and around 8,000 MW of hydro development has been planned.  

The same extends to the scandal of the refineries where most of the refineries are not working or under utilised because of sabotage by powerful interests. It simply pays the few entrenched interest that Nigeria does not work, they thrive and get rich on the misery of the many. 

Whilst Chief Asiodu’s own central thesis of the problem with Nigeria traces it to the Murtala/Obasanjo purge of the Civil Service in 1975.   He suggests that before purge, from after the civil war Nigeria grew at 11.5 percent per annum.[2]  That if we had sustained 10 percent per annum for 20 more years, today the per capital income of Nigeria would not be less than 20,000 dollars.  He makes a comparison with Malaysia that is reputed to have borrowed palm oil technology from Nigeria and is now so far ahead of us.  He claims that many countries overtook us because, we destroyed the civil service; we abandoned the plan of 75 years which was the emphasizing of capital and intermediate products, agro-allied industry, petrochemical, which would have given us a very serious developmental pyramid.

I suggest we need a government that makes it its fundamental objective to govern in the interest of the many and not the privileged and powerful few.  This would mean challenging and taking on the powerful interests that have ground our nation to a halt.  But we need a process that compels our government to take on these interests.  It would require an active imagination, which allows us to think outside the box and contemplate the unthinkable.  I propose a process, which allows the powerful interests to render a full and honest account of their crimes and receive amnesty on the basis that a degree of restitution is made.  The next chapter grapples with the details of such a process one that needs to be free of government manipulation and interference. 

Whilst this book presents this as a choice, a way forward, the reality is the Nigerian situation is unsustainable it cannot go on as before and time is fast running out for the present crop of leaders.  I have carefully considered the option of a truth and reconciliation process because I want my nation to avoid a schism that would make that of Ghana a kindergarten play, the process I offer remains the last hope for a peaceful resolution of the peculiar mess we find ourselves in the risk is to ignore it and the peril that may follow.



[1] Mordi, Carles N O et al (2011) The Changing Structure of the Nigerian Economy, Central Bank of Nigeria
[2] Asiodu, Philip (2011): Op. Cit.

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