As the recent days have slithered by, merging one into another I have found myself dwelling in and out of various social media handles, specifically twitter. The fog of war brought about the by Convid 19 and its aftermath have not prevented my tweets from straying to thoughts of sleepwalking. I have not suddenly taken to sleepwalking in my middle age but the paragraphs below might make this clearer.
My conceptualisation of sleepwalking brings me to the understanding that it is formally known as somnambulism and is a behaviour disorder that originates during deep sleep and results in walking or performing behaviours of varying complexity whilst asleep. It is said to be much more common in children than adults and is more likely to occur if a person is sleep deprived. I wonder why this uncannily reminds me of the experience of most of our governance in the last few decades.
It is over four decades ago an attempt was made to rouse the nation's leadership from slumber with an alarm of a looming economic recession. An alarm sounded in December 1981 by Chief Obafemi Awolowo. The Chief was then the leader of the opposition Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). He had scripted an open letter to President Shagari warning about the "Ship of State which was set for the iceberg" meaning Nigeria's economy was headed for the rock. President Shagari and his party men would have none of such criticism. In fact, Chief Adisa Akinloye, the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) chairman, immediately took off to London to address an elaborate press conference where he suggested the world should not mind the frustrated and ambitious Awolowo, claiming Nigeria economy was sound and healthy.
The government of President Shehu Shagari further described it as the ranting of an alarmist. Two months later in February 1982 Nigeria sleep walked into a recession. By April 1983, the National Assembly passed an Economic Stabilisation Act, which gave President Shagari emergency powers to deal with the nation's economic trouble. Alhaji Shagari failed woefully in his management of the alarm with dire consequences ensuing. In subsequent years it was followed by Major General Muhammadu Buhari’s Austerity Economic Measures and General Ibrahim Babangida’s Emergency Economic Plan.
In 2020 we really have not had many men or ladies of the stature of Awolowo whose voices have arisen above the din to sound an alarm nor are the array of tweets and articles in the media space given much credence or mention. The closest to the sound of an alarm are the noisy cymbals of pots and pans inspired by Omoyele Sowore to draw attention to hunger in the land, a creative mode of protest in the face of the lockdowns we face in this pandemic.
In the past Nigerians like Ayodele Awojobi, Chike Obi, Olubunmi Okojie, Chinua Achebe, Wole Soyinka, Bala Usman, Tai Solarin, Claude Ake, Gani Fawehinmi distinguished themselves by performing the essential ritual of ‘speaking truth to power’ and sounding the alarm. However, with the gradual passing away of their generation (once described as wasted by Wole Soyinka) sleepwalk appears to have taken hold.
The genesis of our alarm is the near shut down of the global economy resulting from the twin effects of Convid 19 Pandemic and oil crises, which has impacted on the price of oil the mainstay of Nigerian economy. The budget was predicated on crude oil production of 2.18mbpd; oil price benchmark of 57 dollar per barrel, Exchange Rate of N305 to US$1; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Inflation Rate of 2.93 per cent and 10.81 per cent respectively. A deficit of over N2.2 trillion was projected which was supposed to be covered up by borrowing.
But as if to encapsulate the sleepwalking theme our Finance Minister in the face of the collapsing oil prices and 40% reduction in revenue, attempted a revision of the budget. The effort which came off as a damp squib presented a projection of $30 per barrel as the new basis and shed over N320 billion of spending, leaving a projected deficit of N5.18 trillion. Indeed 20% of capital projects were slashed and yet the unsustainable petroleum subsidy over more than 1 trillion naira remains untouched. The N128 billion budget of the National Assembly remains unscathed; N4.8 trillion in recurrent expenditure remains largely intact when you consider only N25 million was hived off.
Wind back the hands of the clock to 1982 when National Assembly passed an Economic Stabilisation Act, giving the President emergency powers to deal with the nation's economic woes nothing of the sort is contemplated in the face of an impending economic inferno. It appears it is still essentially business as usual. Usually economic crises presents government an opportunity to be radical in its measures. United Kingdom, years ago faced an economic crises because of its ballooning deficit, largely derived from massive borrowing to address the 2008 global economic crises. The incoming Conservative government of David Cameron used it as an opportunity to shrink the British State considerably.
Today in Nigeria we need to be roused from the deep slumber, move away from cosmetic and lethargic responses and seek radical solutions. Why do we continue to fund our National Assembly at an unsustainable level with unsustainable allowances? Why do we continue to incur so much waste at the Executive level? The radicalism will be to propose a reduction of the National Assembly budget, slashing all their allowances, extending same to the Executive. To bring about constitutional amendments to create a unicameral legislature out of the present and reduce the number of Ministers. Address the issue of petroleum subsidy; revise the revenue allocation to move money away from the centre towards to states. We must also explore innovation that brings about an increase in revenues. Whilst it is certain that stiff and sustained opposition will arise from the National Assembly and other invested interests, the government if it finds boldness blended with radicalism will find that Nigerian people are on its side. I am afraid that without a radical response from President Buhari we are likely to be all consumed by the inferno the collapse of our economy will bring.
Olu Ojedokun, PhD. writes from Ibadan
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